How Militia Groups Exploit Disasters

Posts containing “militia” and FEMA-related words on X/Twitter have had 44.7 million impressions and 7.31 million unique users in the last two weeks, most of which occurred in the past week.

Disaster
Public Health
FIMI
Author
Affiliation

Information Epidemiology Lab

Published

October 7, 2024

False claims about FEMA and disaster aid in the U.S. are setting the stage for potential violence in the coming weeks. Hurricane Helene made landfall last week along with a wave of misleading and false claims. This onslaught of consequence-free punditry (for the pundits, anyhow) is harming hurricane victims who are being misled and responders who are subject to the consequences of lies.

Figure 1: Posts receiving some of the highest levels of engagement that contained the word “militia” and FEMA-related words.

The calls for militias and violence are growing more specific with posts about organizing and traveling to the affected region. The preliminary data show X as one of the greatest sources of misleading and false claims.

The delays in aid and added risks for first responders will undoubtedly have harmed hurricane victims already, just as the sensationalist claims during Hurricane Katrina did. As bad as that was, it could get so much worse.

During Hurricane Katrina, most people still sought news from official sources. While not perfect, these sources spread relatively few false claims and issue corrections when they do. That is not the information environment of today. The world abounds with cautionary tales of what can happen.

It can happen here. Violent riots have broken out over little more than a false tweet. And like the other locations where information online led to violence in the real world, we have highly polarized groups dealing with uncertainty, anxiety, and fear.

If we continue facing every disaster as we are now, where online pundits extract clicks exploiting human suffering, we will eventually see violence.


X Marks Information Anarchy

Many accounts urging militias to organize also spread false information about Maui and East Palestine. Some have curious histories of strong opinions about Russia and Ukraine. The PRC is ramping up operations targeting the U.S. during disasters. We know that Russia has exploited disasters and anxiety about FEMA. Still, we must not be foolish enough to believe outside agitation explains everything. A much larger issue looms.

Posts containing the word “militia” and FEMA-related words on X/Twitter have had 44.7 million impressions and 7.31 million unique users in the last two weeks, most of which have occurred in the last week.

Posts containing the word “militia” and FEMA-related words on X/Twitter have had 44.7 million impressions and 7.31 million unique users in the last two weeks, most of which have occurred in the last week.

In the U.S., tactics often used by cartels and organized crime elsewhere are creeping in—carefully curated social media feeds portray these groups as defenders of the people, providing aid and engaging in what is known as criminal governance.1 Some videos online are urging people to “self-deploy,” using hurricane victims as a means to mobilize militia types.

Republican and Democratic officials, hurricane victims, as well as NGOs and state agencies, have begged the public to stop with the false claims. Police are having to guard FEMA workers who are being followed, and that, too, takes from resources that could go to victims.

The lies, delays, and dysfunction play into the hands of militia, cartels, and organized criminal groups who attempt to curry favor by delivering aid, maintaining order, and offering an alternative way of life. Here in the U.S., the chronic underfunding of FEMA creates opportunities for violent groups to step in, gain favor with the public, influence elected officials, and build relationships with law enforcement—-whom they may eventually come to view as enemies in many cases.

Feeding the Hand That Bites You

Help in crisis might seem like no big deal. “So what if they are helping?”

That’s precisely the point. If you knew what might come next, you would not welcome it. In the brief instances we’ve seen non-state actors pop up and attempt to play government in the U.S., they began conducting armed searches of disaster victims or interrogating anyone who “isn’t from around here.”

Checkpoints, inspired by false claims on Facebook, led to a massacre of innocent civilians. The situation has grown so dire in Nigeria that they have peacekeeping forces that fact-check false claims before they spiral into violent conflict.

Studies show these unaccountable groups bring violence and crime, which they engage in with impunity at the expense of local populations. The very people these groups once helped sometimes become the ones pressured to sell land at low prices, pay for security, and ignore criminal enterprise. Aid delivery campaigns—heavily promoted in online media—drive recruitment and change public opinion about the group.

In the U.S., we’re choosing to systematically erode the government’s ability to serve people by ignoring warnings and not responding to extreme weather becoming the new normal. In short, this is a problem of lawmakers not responding to the needs of U.S. citizens and misleading them about the cause.

This ensures that when future disasters come, people will be left wanting—and cartels, organized crime, terrorist groups, and violent non-state actors are all too happy to fill that void.


Resources for Disaster Assistance

Tips to Avoid Scams

  • Check official channels: Always rely on government websites, official disaster relief organizations (e.g., FEMA, Red Cross), and local authorities for accurate information. If you’re not sure, call FEMA at 1-800-621-3362.

  • Be cautious of unsolicited contact: Beware of unexpected calls, texts, or emails claiming to offer aid. Scammers often pose as legitimate organizations. People sometimes pose as contractors and take payments before disappearing.

  • Protect sensitive details: Be wary of anyone asking for Social Security numbers, banking information, or other personal details unless it’s a known, verified organization.

  • Use multi-factor authentication: Protect your accounts by enabling multifactor authentication for added security.

  • Crowdfunding caution: Ensure crowd-funding pages (e.g., GoFundMe) are legitimate and from verified sources before donating.

Footnotes

  1. Criminal governance is defined as instances in which armed criminal groups set and enforce rules and provide security and other basic services – such as water, electricity, or internet access – in an urban area, which may be a part (or the whole) of an informal settlement or a neighborhood. (Global Initiative, 2020)↩︎

Citation

BibTeX citation:
@article{infoepi_lab2024,
  author = {{InfoEpi Lab}},
  publisher = {Information Epidemiology Lab},
  title = {How {Militia} {Groups} {Exploit} {Disasters}},
  journal = {InfoEpi Lab},
  date = {2024-10-07},
  url = {https://infoepi.org/posts/2024/10/07-militia-groups-exploit-disaster-helene-milton-hurricane-fema.html},
  langid = {en}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
InfoEpi Lab. 2024. “How Militia Groups Exploit Disasters.” InfoEpi Lab, October. https://infoepi.org/posts/2024/10/07-militia-groups-exploit-disaster-helene-milton-hurricane-fema.html.